Brokers’ take: Analysts lift Ascendas Reit’s TPs on structural tailwinds, stable occupancy

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ASCENDAS Real Estate Investment Trust’s (A-Reit) diversified portfolio and potential accretive acquisitions are probably going to help offset the unsure viewpoint, despite the fact that it will be overloaded in the close to term by the further rental alleviation it provides to tenants.

This is as indicated by analysts who have increased their objective prices (TPs) for units of the land investment trust (Reit). CGS-CIMB raised its TP to S$3.12 from S$3.00 previously, Jefferies lifted the TP to S$3.80 from S$3.50, while DBS increased the TP to S$4.00, from S$3.45 previously.

Both Jefferies and DBS looked after their “purchase” calls, while CGS-CIMB minimized the counter to “hold” from “include”.

Units of A-Reit were exchanging at S$3.52 as at 2.16pm on Friday, up S$0.09 or 2.6 per cent.A-Reit on Thursday evening posted a resilient set of budgetary results for the first 50% of this year – significantly subsequent to including rental assistance to tenants – and it remains optimistic on its rental standpoint going forward.DBS analysts Derek Tan and Dale Lai on Friday called attention to that the Reit’s worth lay in its diversity and exposure to numerous structural tailwinds, which will drive its earnings and capital values higher in the longer term.

They raised the stock’s TP in anticipation that A-Reit will find its huge top peers in terms of valuation.

“While investors have focused on acceleration sought after for logistics and server farms, most have to a great extent overlooked A-Reit’s significant business parks exposure, which would profit by the future pattern towards decentralized offices as more companies embrace adaptable working arrangements,” DBS composed.

It also assumed the Reit will probably undertake about S$500 million in acquisitions before the finish of FY20, and this will be a catalyst to reaccelerate its development force.

“A-Reit’s share cost is exchanging inside a virtuous cycle at a suggested cost of capital that is conducive for accretive acquisitions,” Mr Lai and Mr Tan said.

“We accept the following billion in deals will probably originate from its Singapore business park properties in the one-north region, which its sponsor might be hoping to divest and should be generally welcomed by investors.”

In a report on Thursday, Jefferies analyst Krishna Guha noticed that despite the fact that the trust’s working metrics are probably going to deterioriate, its diversified portfolio and occupant base should help alleviate the effect of a “testing” business viewpoint and “stretched” valuation.

The positive lease reversion in H1 was driven by enormous leases in business parks, which were “under-leased”, as well as pandemic-related interest for the stockpiling and logistics of essential goods, as per Mr Guha.

Based on new leases signed, tenants from the logistics and supply chain the executives sector represented the largest proportion of new interest in the first 50% of this year.

In any case, the viewpoint is probably going to soften once the pandemic-related interest slows down, said Mr Guha.

“While leasing action has gotten, tenants are reluctant to move out to maintain a strategic distance from fit-out and relocation expenses.

“Unless new interest comes from contract fabricating in Singapore, occupancy is probably going to debilitate,” he included.

In the interim, CGS-CIMB minimized the stock because of A-Reit’s ongoing share value rally and restricted close term upside, said analysts Lock Mun Yee and Eing Kar Mei in a report on Thursday night. Be that as it may, they set a higher TP as they brought down their cost of value on the counter.

Following the Reit’s results declaration on Thursday, CGS-CIMB cut its distribution per unit estimates by 2.2 percent for FY20 and by 2.6 percent for FY22 to factor in “slight” changes in portfolio occupancy, mostly offset by new contributions from A-Reit’s new Sydney property.

CGS-CIMB noticed A-Reit’s stable portfolio occupancy of 91.5 percent as at end-June and its positive rental reversion of 5.4 percent for leases recharged in first six months of this year.

Be that as it may, the research group foresees “some close term drags” from occupant lease reliefs. A-Reit expects to stretch out around S$20 million of cash based lease reliefs because of the effect of the novel coronavirus pandemic, and about portion of these have been released so far, generally to tenants in Singapore.

In Australia, the trust has suspended lease collection from retail and food and drink tenants from April until they revive, despite the fact that these tenants record for less than 1 percent of its Australia pay. A-Reit also offered to forgo and concede rents for two small and medium-sized enterprise tenants in Australia.

Jefferies’ Mr Guha noticed that besides the S$20 million in lease rebates, there were also S$10 million in property charge rebates passed on to tenants in H1 2020. Altogether, these sum to slightly longer than a month of portfolio gross rental salary in Singapore and Australia.

A-Reit’s administration also expects progressively rental rebates in the second 50% of this year. “We expect, all in, a few months of lease waiver may must be given, notwithstanding a second wave,” Mr Guha composed.


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